Monday, October 06, 2008

 

The End is Here: Read (books) all about it!

Forget the news.

To get a handle on what's happening in the global financial meltdown -- it spread across Europe over the weekend, and most Murkans didn't notice and won't get it -- read the following books by John Kenneth Galbraith:

"The Great Crash, 1929"

"A Short History of Financial Euphoria"

"The Economics of Innocent Fraud: Truth for Our Time"

And, the current crises aside, if you can find it, Galbraith's "Economics in Perspective: A Critical History" (NYT review, from 1987), has the ER Seal of Approval.

Now, let's just hold on tight.

--ER

Comments:
Heh. "Murkans".
At least you didnt spell it "Merkens".

That always cracks me up, but I think it's a little "unahmurican".
 
Ah, I love the smell of a grilled Lehman Bros. exec in the morning.
 
Richard Fuld is nowhere near contrite, and that's the only attitude he, or any of these jerks, need to cop with Congress.
 
I do not believe "the end is here". Certainly, the financial system is in a bad way, and bank-to-bank, and bank-to-business credit is getting tighter. The germ has spread overseas (as anyone paying attention would or should have known it would), and the Europeans are in as big a scramble as the US was a couple weeks ago. The bailout passed last week already looks like it will do little to end this, because it doesn't address the fundamental issue, viz., a crisis in confidence among large institutions.

For the most part, though, this is no different than the collapse of the South Asian bubble in the late-1990's, which was also fed by mass speculation in real estate and the perverse trading of leveraged commodities. When Singapore and Thailand and (to a lesser extent) South Korea went bust, there were questions whether the whole thing would totter over. It didn't.

Japan is in the midst of a recovery from a fifteen-year-long financial malaise, and it along with China and India, will most likely pick up quite a bit of the slack (although there are reports that some Indian banks and the Indian market were more heavily invested in American crap products than previously thought).

The bigger story, to me, is the destruction of the US as the financial center of the universe. While not necessarily a bad thing - Britain has survived the end of its role as both world power and world financial leader quite nicely - that is has happened so abruptly and with a certain amount of foresight (when Gramm-Leach passed in the late-1990's, along with other measures designed to deregulate and otherwise "modernize" commodities trading and banking) there were a few who noted that the last of the Depression-era safety nets designed to prevent a catastrophe such as the one we are watching unfold, having been removed, started the clock ticking. It took about a decade, and reaping the whirlwind, even as we sowed a wind(fall) of get-rich-quick nonsense, gives me (at any rate) a bit of schadenfreude.

I do believe things will be tough, and probably for quite some time. The end, however? I don't think so.
 
I agree with everything you said.

The End I'm talking about, though, refers to the "good times" people have been having on air, bubbles of credit. Housing bubbles are gone, housing credit bubbles are gone, other securitized credit is going.
 
The end?
It is the end of talking about investing Social Security in the stock market.

It is the end of paying $400,000 for a $100,000 in most of California. California will be in a depression.

It is the end of the Executive salary that is 10,000 times the size of the average salary within the corporation.

It is the miserable end of the dreams of the baby boomers for that sweet retirement.
 
Re, "It is the miserable end of the dreams of the baby boomers for that sweet retirement."

And can anyone believe that McCain is talking out loud about effing with Medicare and Medicaid? He's a damned moron.
 
On the upside, while the markets are down 25%, my husband's 401K is only down 22%.

We're beating the market!

Um. Woo hoo??
 
A wise old woman I know, who was forced to leave school at 13 to help on her family (small) farm, survived Nazi Germany, became one of the most affluent people in her city, speaks of times like those coming toward us as times of healing:
where people really learn to differentiate between what's important and what's not, and let go of the superfluous material things, maybe even get rid of some the focus on the self.
So these days I think - let the healing begin, and let's share some skills. It'll be good for our children, and by extension for our grandchildren.
And may we not compromise our integrity and basic human rights for some leader who might come along and guarantee to give us "back" the TV and the 4,000 sq ft house and new vehicle, our freedom to spend on credit, i.e.illusory "security".

(Helen Keller said something great about true security).
 
A wise old woman I know, who was forced to leave school at 13 to help on her family (small) farm, survived Nazi Germany, became one of the most affluent people in her city, speaks of times like those coming toward us as times of healing:
where people really learn to differentiate between what's important and what's not, and let go of the superfluous material things, maybe even get rid of some the focus on the self.
So these days I think - let the healing begin, and let's share some skills. It'll be good for our children, and by extension for our grandchildren.
And may we not compromise our integrity and basic human rights for some leader who might come along and guarantee to give us "back" the TV and the 4,000 sq ft house and new vehicle, our freedom to spend on credit, i.e.illusory "security".

(Helen Keller said something great about true security).
 
I don't think we're strong enough for a depression. I think it would be a lot more dog-eat-dog, violent.
 
That's what I'm worried about. And that's what Francis Schaeffer foresaw before he died in the 70s, in his book And How Shall We Then Live...?
But bad times bring out the best in some - I was thinking today about how the only reason the Germans could even hold their heads up a little after the war, was because of the few who said "no, I'm not going to act like that", and were killed for it. Every city in Germany has a street named after Sophie and Hans Scholl, a brother and sister (21 and 22, Christians) who were executed by guillotine for their underground work (their crime - a janitor at the University of Munich saw them scatter flyers in the foyer, anti-nazi flyers they had printed on an illegal printing press.)
So, no matter how others behave, how are we going to act in difficult times? I'm talking about the day to day.

Another wise woman told me once: if you're on a tight budget, you can always save on food. I know people, still alive today who survived on nettle soup after WWII, and not only did they rush home to cook it when they found a patch, but invited their neighbors to share it with them. Those times have even become happy memories, becuase of the sharing and helping.
 
If we have leadership we will be alright. If not, then it will be 1968 all over again, except it will be more brutal.
 
And by the way; The Forth Turning.
 
Republican Party leadership has been on display all week, in heels and high heels, and in the form of a cranky old son-of-a-bitch, both of whom are stoking violence with their hateful rhetoric.
 
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