Wednesday, March 05, 2008

 

It's scary to be me at 3 o'clock in the morning

Smething propelled me out of bed in here to pull my vintage 1960 copy of Barry Goldwater's "The Conscience of a Conservative" AND John Kenneth Galbraith's "The Great Crash, 1929" off the shelves.

It's fixin' to get real bad, y'all. I can feels it. I can feels it.

If the political parties in this country had any sense, each would be sayin' to the other one: On second thought, y'all can have the White House. See ya.

--ER

Comments:
What's got into ya, ER?
 
Well, I actually lookeda thr farm agate in the paper yesterday.

WTH are wheat futures doing flirting with TWELVE DOLLARS a bushel???

Wheat prices sat at $2.50 to $3.50 for about 40 years. It was HUGE when they hit $6.50 or so in the early ... '90s ... never mind. ... That was 15 years ago.
 
Fed cattle flirting with a buck a pound? WT ... Byut I see they're comin' off that.

The cattle cycle end is near. Good prices for a decade. That means everybody and their dogs buyin' in. Herd expansion. Until the inevitable: Pop.

And high corn ain't gonna help. High corn is draggin' wheat up. And air is behind all of it: Ethanol is real. But the rush to grwo corn for it is like any other: it's created a bubble.

And it's the kind that hurts. Corn goes into EVERYTHUNG, which is why everything is going up.

Lordy. People are talking about STAGFLATION again.

... Just ramblin'. But Lordy.
 
Not sure what you're eluding to:

The economic crisis that has been coming at us like a run-a-way locomotive for years.

The lack of leadership from the white house, congress, the treasury and the central bank.

The lack of a presidential candidate from either party that seems to be able to address and provide the leadership required to help resolve the issues that face us at home or overseas.

The .... oh! Most of the other issues I can think of tie back to the above.

I may have to read the books that you mentioned. Both are probably a good read.

mr bbs
 
OK, OK. One mroe thing. Cotton is boming in southwest Oklahoma. Because so many cotton farmers in the easst have turnee from cotton to corn, it's caused a relative cotton shortage, which is fdriving cotton up, and with the boll weevil finally all but licked farmers in southwest Oklahoma are getting TWO bales an acre. DrLobo, did you see that?

OK. Must git to work.
 
Re, "The lack of a presidential candidate from either party that seems to be able to address and provide the leadership required to help resolve the issues that face us at home or overseas."

I think that's too much to ask of a single person. Congress has to be involved. And look at it. Tip O'Neil was the last great speaker, and he led the last Congresses worth a pitcher of warm spit.

Oh, the economic crisi ... locomotive, etc. It's driven by greed. Always. ... There are just more bubbles out there than people think. Credit bubb;e has popped. Housing bubbles (plural) have popped. The ethanol bubble has not popped. There are other commodity bubbles. I think there's an energy bubble at work, too -- it ain't just the usual suspects that have oil at $100-plus a bbl. But I'm not smart enough to figure out where the source of that bubble is. ...
 
You did answer your own question about the wheat (and cotton). You can only grow one thing or another at one time on a piece of land, so naturally it goes to what's going to bring in the moola. We can produce either food or energy--or dedicate more resources to producing one or both. What a concept!

This is what happens when the government (both sides!) has a knee-jerk reaction to a problem. Instead of planning, or thinking, ahead, the G-men live "paycheck to paycheck" so the only options for immediate solutions are the ones that are going to shaft the taxpayers one way or another. Trickle down theory works both ways.

Imagine if they had invested in a little planning.
 
I suspect bad times are coming, too, ER. Particularly if Obama wins the White House. Yes, that's right. I support Hillary. I haven't been able to discuss politics over here because I was so disappointed that you supported Obama. For the most part, you and I have remained on the same political page for years. This change was upsetting to me. I still haven't got over it. I'm also afraid this fight between Clinton and Obama will drain the party's resources so that we will start the presidential campaign outmonied and outgunned.

FF, the United States hasn't had a sensible energy policy ever. All the parties and presidents have failed us miserably in this. The Energy Crisis in the 70's should have been a clarion call for vast changes, but instead we bowed the oil companies and the status quo and let things continue. I suspect we will continue to do this until we're forced to do differently. We're spoiled, we Americans, and we support anyone who says that we can continue our fat, sloppy ways.

Yeah, that's the mood I'm in.
 
Re, "Imagine if they had invested in a little planning."

Heh. "Planning" is a dirty word among conservatives and skittish libs. But planning is exactly what this country needs to do with energy production and food-and-fiber production.

If our lives depends on it, and they do, then it's a matter of national defense -- and too important to be left to the whims of the marketplace. ... There I go talking like Henry Wallace again ...


Tech: I understand why people are against Obama on hot-button social issues. But that doesn't seem to be your complaint. Please to explain. (BTW: Dr. ER voted for Hill, and I voted for Obama.)
 
Oh, shit.
 
What??
 
Ethanol from corn is a lie.
See National Geographic if you don't believe me. It takes more energy to make energy from corn than you get by making energy from corn. Switch grass gives a good return, but corn ,NO.

The hidden cost to bio-fuels is water. Water has been cheap like everything else pre-paid and subsidized for by the government.
That's coming to an end. Want to know what the wars are about next then see H2O.

Say ER, what are they growing on that deadland in the SE Un-tied States, and Southern California these days? If you said people, you would be right on target. I wonder what they will drink, mix in their concrete and water their lawns with?

Want to get rich invent an automobile paint that doesn't need a car-wash. You know one that nothing sticks to it even smog.

Yeah, I heard about the 2 bales per acre. That's what my Grandfather use to get before the 1920s on his newly broke land along Suttle Creek. So we are back to where we were in SW Oklahoma 88 years ago. Well, except he used mules and kids to put in and pull the crop. Now it takes a $450,000 Cotton machine and special trailers to get the crop out.

Want to know what price will be jacked to the sky next? ER says corn goes into everything. Check the labels on damn near anything you buy in the way of food.

The next few years will be about food, fuel, and fear.
After that it will be water, water, water everywhere.

Casandra has spoken.

Say ER, you need to lay off those canned comfort foods. That's what gets you up at 3 a.m..
 
Frenzied Feline swoons...

I'm going to have to mark this on my calendar--ER, Tech, and I see eye-to-eye on something political!

(Maybe the end of the world is really around the corner! ;) )

Tech: FF, the United States hasn't had a sensible energy policy ever. All the parties and presidents have failed us miserably in this. The Energy Crisis in the 70's should have been a clarion call for vast changes, but instead we bowed the oil companies and the status quo and let things continue. I suspect we will continue to do this until we're forced to do differently.

Tech, you're so right. I get the feeling we're about to be forced to.

ER: Heh. "Planning" is a dirty word among conservatives and skittish libs. But planning is exactly what this country needs to do with energy production and food-and-fiber production.

If our lives depends on it, and they do, then it's a matter of national defense -- and too important to be left to the whims of the marketplace. ... There I go talking like Henry Wallace again ...


ER, I'm not sure planning is a dirty word as much as it isn't an immediate solution to the problem du jour. Americans are suffering from the consequences of immediate gratification. There have been a lot of babies thrown out with the bath water in the name of an immediate response when one wasn't needed.

Okay, I think the whims of the marketplace wouldn't have been a problem if the proverbial planning had been done. For example, California needs power plants--like last week! I'm all for being environmentally responsible, but there hasn't been any compromise on the side of the environmentalists. We haven't had any new plants in CA in about 20 years. In the meantime, the population has grown from 28.4 million to 38.2 million now, with an estimated increase of 20 million in the next 30 years. Just when is the Golden State, not to mention the rest of the country, going to get the message already??

Climbing down off my soapbox now...
 
Y'all wake me at 3 tomorrow morning and maybe I'll be in the right frame of mind to read this. I can't handle it fully awake.
 
Getting bad? It is bad, and will only get much, much worse before it gets better. Read yesterday that Dubai won't deal with CitiCorp right now unless it gets a big cash infusion from somewhere else, and with its losses sitting at close to $13 billion, I'm not sure who's going to pout good money after bad like that.

Heard this morning on NPR on the way home from work that a commodities futures investment firm was being investigated after it reported a huge loss. That would be by Patrick Fitzgerald the USA for Chicago and Northern Illinois. Your questions about futures prices might be related.

As to leadership, who gets elected in the USA by saying we need thick umbrellas because a shitstorm is coming? You've got McCain telling everyone the USA is Number 1. You've got Hillary telling everyone she's ready for whatever comes, even though she doesn't tell us what, exactly is coming. Obama tells everyone to hope, to work hard - but hope and hard work against what? And for what, considering the mess we're in? Banks are broke, municipalities are broke, states are going that way, and we're pissing down the rathole of Iraq as fast as we can drink.

Sorry for the rant. I'm cranky.

I was up at 3am, but I was busy.
 
End of the world, end of the world, what are you guys Jehova Witnesses. Grant you under their reading of the Bible the second coming happens before the generation born in 1914 has gone away. Those people are getting sparse.

But really guys, if you took a 12inch globe and place a bit of a 20wieght piece of typing paper on it, then the thickness of the paper would be equal in scale to the ocean from its deepest place to the top of mount everest and more.
Naw, maybe that damp little surface scum of life, and the virus know as man, might be cleaned off the earth but other dust and contaminates will come along to replace us.

"All Hail,'K'!"
(Remember that movie?)
 
Don't mark your calendar yet, FF.

Maybe California should do something to curb its growth instead of raping the earth. How about passing out condoms in all the schools? California has one of the nation's highest birth rates and teen preggies. (Yes, I know Oklahoma does, too, thank you very much. I don't rule here. Yet.) Or maybe passing a law where all the office buildings have to use energy saving bulbs and developing more public transportation.

We only got one earth, folks. Perhaps we should deliver it in good shape to our children and grandchildren.
 
Tech says: "California has one of the nation's highest birth rates and teen preggies. (Yes, I know Oklahoma does, too, thank you very much. I don't rule here. Yet.)"

California is fast becoming majority Hispanic and Catholic. They've gone from 25 million when I was playing geographer there in 1970 to about 35 million today. They already suck water out of almost every State west of the great divide. They became the target for fraud under ENRON because they can't pass laws allowing them to build new power plants because of NIMBY concerns of their local eco-manics. Let us pray for Califonia for devine intervention is about all that is left to them.

As for Oklahoma, well we breed them alright, and then we export them to California. So percentage wise we have been losing population compared to other states.

And ER it would be scary to be you any time of the day bro.
 
"All hail K!" I LOVE that.

Re, on bad and gettin' badder. Well, what I'm sayin is that while the economy in Oklahoma is still hitting on 8 cylinders -- jobs are steady, thanks mostly to ulngas thAt's oil-and-gas in the vernacular) and related bidnesses, plus a teensy bit of economic diversification since the '80s oil bust; home prices actually have continued to rise quarter to quarter, althigh they got choppy but, close stayed close to flat, month to month late last year -- I can see now how the national economic gremlins are closer than I thought to mucking things up for us.

Uno. It ain't inflation in theory. The stats just haven't gotten caught up. And when commodities are on the rise, that means serious inflation, since upticks in inputs act with leverage on the things they're inputted into.

Two-o. Havin' affordable housing don't mean much when credit has dried up, and although the housing situation here is still way insulated from the former hot markets, the credit situation is gonna hit us harder than we thought it would, I've come to decide, mainly because it ain't just what we turn our nose up as "subprime" loans that are gone: even loans requiring a down payment are harder to come by, and since lenders have rediscovered actual loan underwriting again, what passed for "good" credit a couple of years ago ain't good enough now, and Oklahoma, bein' a poor state, probably has more credits risks than the national average.

Tres. Babies in Oklahoma used to be raised to smell cow shit and think "smalls like money," and to see high ulngas prices and think "supper on the table for my ilngas neighbors means supper on the table for me and mine." But holy shit! Oil at $103 -- and even Oklahoma Sweet and Oklahoma Sour in the $90s -- scares the shit out of me. The Law of Diminishing Returns has been engaged.

Frenzied, you can have yer soapbox back.
 
Dang it! Woukld somebody hire me as a redneck economic common tater from the heartland?? I don't pertend to know much, but me and my lil ol' minor in economics sure got somethin' to day about most of it! :-)
 
Fer enough scratch, I'd even consider takin' a typin' class. Or "keyboardin' " as they call it nowdays.
 
Oh please. That will be the day.
 
Tech: California should do something to curb its growth instead of raping the earth. How about passing out condoms in all the schools? California has one of the nation's highest birth rates and teen preggies. (Yes, I know Oklahoma does, too, thank you very much. I don't rule here. Yet.) Or maybe passing a law where all the office buildings have to use energy saving bulbs and developing more public transportation.

Tech, I believe DrLobojo addressed California's main problem, but by all means not the only one:

California is fast becoming majority Hispanic and Catholic.

And it's not fast becoming, it already is in many areas. With the Hispanic population mainly Catholic, and not big on birth control, they're the fastest growing. Then there's that whole other argument I won't get into here.

And are you kidding me?? This is CALIFORNIA--they DO pass out condoms. (Now if they could just pass out some self-control...) Most public buildings already use ES bulbs, and public transportation can only go so far.

For example, I can't catch a bus from my house. I have to drive to the nearest bus stop which is over 7 miles away. It used to be I couldn't get a taxi to come to my house, but it's still a car being driven whether I drive it or pay someone ridiculous fees to take me to the bus.

We have a commuter train, but they haven't figured out how to run during the pre-dawn hours when people actually need to commute from here if they're going all the way to LA. The area just isn't set up to be conducive to many types of public transportation. There's currently a battle going on to build a tunnel through the mountains near where I live to open up another route into Orange County. It's mostly the pesky NIMBY's (one, of which, I am not, even though it's near me), and the environmentalists. It doesn't matter that they have vastly improved technology for building such a thing with the least amount of impact. We're just all supposed to spend our lives on I-15 in idling cars. Yeah, that's great for the environment, too.

ER, would you like to borrow my soapbox again? I think I need to get to bed--I'm starting to see double. :\
 
You and DL may be right, FF. I, of course, think you're both wrong -- completely -- and stand proudly and angrily with the "eco-manics." As such -- and also because I don't want your vision to suffer -- let us leave it there and talk of other things.
 
By the way, I think I mostly shared my views here -- and I do believe them -- to start a fight. And fighting is never good. I'm going around angry these days. I still can't bring myself to discuss Obama with ER because I'm so upset that he is supporting him. I see red, start wanting to shout, and that can't be good. Life has everything in it but hope these days.
 
Does anyone have any cheese to go with my whine?
 
You know, I think I'm going to do a "blog run" and take over this comment thread.

Total subject change: We're supposed to get 5 to 8 inches of snow later today and tonight. I can't believe it.

I wonder if ER will turn the comments off on me.

Probably not.

But he might.

Particularly if I keep nattering on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on ...
 
Smart tech is the answer to our world's woes. Solar, tidal, geothermal -- check out a great article about geothermal power in Discover this month -- hydro, wind -- Scientific American ran a great paper about our ability to end our dependence on oil. Will it happen? Probably not in my lifetime, but maybe.
 
Okay, I'm going to stop now.
 
If we never used another drop of oil for fuel we would still be addicted to it. Look at everything in your house. Now subtract the plastics. Not only do we use it as a material, the very technology of manufacturing is based on the molding of it.

For what it is worth Tech, I am supporting Clinton as well. I am susprized that grownups can't see through the facade within which Obama has cloaked himself.
He is a good politician, and it is showing. Maybe he could be a good president. But I know Hillery will be a good president.

Also I keep hearing from his supporters, even his wife, you better elect him or we will take our marbles and go home. At least they haven't yet said we will take our marbles and start a third party. But it may be well on its way.

Look behind Obama and you see the same machine and money and motivations that drive McCain or Clinton. He ain't no different, just younger and cleaner. But he is old wine in a new skin. That's a combination where the wine will leak.
 
You sure that's not new wine in old skin? I'd put something in new skin to keep it from leaking. ;)

Okay, I'm just being smart-alecky now... :)
 
Oh my, that made my day - that this Tech person not only seems to be enthusiastitc about Hillary Clinton - unique in my experience - ..get...over...somebody...not supporting...her.... I know I missed a "sob" in there somewhere. Sensitive celibate males, feh.

Oh never mind, I'm probably a painful self-caricature too - or at least I play one on the internet.

And tut-tut, Dr. L.
 
Oh, TStockman, you misunderstand. Probably because your snark was getting in the way. I don't particularly care about most people not supporting her, other than the fact it will keep her from being elected and perhaps put the empty Obama in office. I care about ER not supporting her since he was originally the one who convinced me to support her husband and then her, and now he has abandoned her, mostly because his commenters didn't like her, as far as I can tell.

By the way, ER and I have been friends longer than you've been alive. And in that time, we've yelled at each other, argued, plotted terrible bloody revenge [okay, maybe that was just me], and generally had a good time. But in all those many years, I don't recall us ever sobbing to each other. It's not really something straight, uptight, repressed men do with their friends. But perhaps that will change, and eventually we will all be as sensitive, caring and kind as you. Don't hold your breath, though. As for celibate, well, I don't think you should fault ER on that. His wife is in Colorado. I've never claimed to be celibate and won't since there is too much evidence to the contrary.
 
Okay, ER, the "because his commenters didn't like her" line was unjustified. I just got off the phone with you and am posting a retraction on that part of the comment. Not that you asked for one, but because it slighted your doubtless intelligent reasons for supporting him. Ahem. Look, that's as sincere as I can manage today.

DL, there are alternatives to plastics, ones that are more expensive, but much better for the enviroment. No, I don't expect us to ever stop using oil -- at least until it runs completely out -- but we can start making better choices. Also, in my house, you will find very little plastic other than my electronics, robots, lasers and appliances. I'm a glass, wood, metal, bone, ceramic, natural fiber kind of guy. Even my switchplates are wood or metal, several designed/painted by me ... Good grief, I am sensitive.

Hell, it's snowing now. I HATE winter.
 
Huh?

Re, "I care about ER not supporting her since he was originally the one who convinced me to support her husband and then her ..."

I have no recollection of this.


Re, "and now he has abandoned her ..."

!!! I didn't make a decision on whether to vote for Hillary or Obama until a week or so before the election! I was for Bill Richardson.


Re, "mostly because his commenters didn't like her, as far as I can tell."

WTH?
 
OK. Yer retraction crossed in the ether with my surprise. No biggie.
 
ER, back when Bill was in office, we had a big discussion when I was wavering about being a Democratic. You convinced me, for all his flaws, that Bill and by extension, his wife, were worth my support. I thought your reasoning was sound then and still do.

And I already retracted the "commenters" line, okay, as being unjustififed.
 
FF, re: wines and wine skins. New wine is put in a new wine skin so that as it ferments and creates gasses the wines skin with expand with the wine and thus seal the minor holes in the seams and awl holes. The new wine skins are made so they can expand. So if you you put new wine in an old skin the skin will not epand but will burst. If you put an old wine which will not be forming gasses in a new wine skin, the skin will not expand and seal the minor holes in the seams. Thus it will leak. Obama is the same old wine in a new wine skin.

No plastics, hey Tech? Got carpet?
Got cushions? uppolstery? Sleep on a matress? Brush you teeth? Is that a cast iron bath tub you bath in? Drive a car? Own a refrigerator? Got paint on you house anywhere? How about your shoes? Buttons on your shirt? All of your food comes in cans? Meat is all wrapped in papper is it? No credit cards in you wallet in those clear plastic sleaves? No insulated electric wires in your house? etc. etc.
 
No, DL, I said I had few plastics, not that I had none. But after seeing your reply, I see that I am completely wrong and that I wallow in plastic. In fact, it's an orgy of plastic in my house. I'm getting hot just thinking about it.
 
It reminds me of the frog in the kettle story. You know, if you thow a frog into hot water, not being a fool he jumps right out.
But if you put the frog in cool water and then turn up the heat slowly he will boil to death. Urban legend or not, it is a good model of what has happened to us.

It seems the old fart in the movie "The Graduate" was right after all: Plastics.

FF, I-15, how about the Riverside freeway? Last year I actually took city streets and got from Redlands to Fullerton in about the same time as my inlaws on the "freeway".
 
Stagflation by the way has always sounded like a musky wildlife type of thing to me.
 
DL, well from where I live, I have to first brave the 15 to get anywhere near the 91 (Riverside) freeway. The 15 used to be a cakewalk, but it's turned into the 91, but without benefit of additional lanes or even toll lanes. (Not that I could afford the dang toll lanes!)

I totally believe you beat someone by using city streets. Happen to remember the route you took? I may need that--lol.

Thanks for explaining about the wine. Being a, you know, Mormon (shhh!) I'm not terribly knowledgeable about the subject. :)
 
Tech, I don't think you and I had any discussion between the time you graudated OSU in, what, 1985, and 2004, a few months before I started this blog. I didn't know what a blog was until yours. ... Did we? ... Might've been 2003. But we were well under way with the current presidential unpleasantness by then. ??
 
I'll call you, ER, and give details, but we did talk before 2004.

If this helps, we originally got back in contact after I called you about publicity for the local theater group. I think you had just started at your place of employment or maybe had been there a year or less when we did. Crystal had given me contact info on you.

You called me a few weeks later needing to get in touch with my older sister. After that time, we talked on and off, and during one of those conversations, you made an excellent defense of Bill when you said, "What does that (his personal life) have to do with his ability to run the country?" I thought that there was wisdom in that and still do.

I'll call you with the rest of the details as the rest reveals more about our real lives than either of us wish to have in a public blog.
 
I will say that you mentioned Tech before I left the company, which was in 2002. If that helps cloud the issue any more.

OK, I'm angry about just getting home after 9 p.m. on a Friday night, so I thought this was a great time to jump into this now-old discussion.

Water is going to be (and already is becoming) the currency in most of this country. Municipalities are set to do battle about water rights, especially in our state.

Scientists are expecting a return of a Dust Bowl in southern parts of Oklahoma within the next 20 years because aquifers are not recharging and thus water resources there will dry up, with little or no hope of replacing them. And what a shame that is considering that the same region is already extremely short of employees for the businesses already in place! What's going to happen if those necessary jobs become filled with humans and their families and suddenly there is insufficient water to sustain them?

More cities will start working deals like my current city. We're about to complete an efficiencies project with Honeywell which is upgrading the town's infrastructure to the tune of $15 million -- which will be paid out through energy savings to the town. New lighting (street and traffic lights and city buildings), new water meters, new electric meters, a remote meter-reading system, HVAC upgrades. We've almost paid for it in 8 months.
And because of that relationship with Honeywell, we're also getting a mesh Wi-Fi network for all emergency and municipal vehicles. It's starting right now with a test project. When the test is completed, the city may expand the coverage to include all city vehicles -- side benefit would be Wi-Fi availability throughout the city. The economies of this are pretty spectacular. The test system will be sold to the city at the conclusion of the test period for a huge sum: $1.

We better all be thinking about forming smaller communities so commutes are not so unholy. I'm planning to get a bike this spring. I can do that because I live 10 blocks from work. More people are going to have to consider telecommuting (which I also do on side jobs) and living closer to their offices.

Ah poop. I'm too tired to continue. *kicks soapbox back out into the middle.*
 
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